The latest proof is Iran’s downing of a US Apache helicopter. It shows the regime can still hurt the Americans and will not budge.
For Tehran victory means survival and enhanced deterrence. That includes acknowledgement of their control over the Strait of Hormuz. One of the world’s most strategic waterways remains shut since March. Dire warnings about the global economy are now coming true.
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Trump will try to calibrate his response carefully. The Apache crew survived. Had they been killed a much harsher reply would have been certain. The president wants a deal. He needs to reopen the strait and start longer term talks on Iran’s enriched uranium stockpile and nuclear plans. The war is deeply unpopular in America. He wants an exit he can sell as a win. That is proving extremely difficult.
Both men are learning an old lesson. It is far easier to start a war than to end one with a clear victory. When they led their countries into conflict on the last day of February they spoke as if history was about to bend their way. Trump addressed the Iranian people directly from Mar-a-Lago. He told them the hour of their freedom was at hand. He urged them to shelter and wait until the bombs stopped falling. Then they should take their government.
Netanyahu stood on a rooftop in Tel Aviv the next morning. He spoke of smiting the terror regime hip and thigh. It was what he had yearned to do for forty years. Throughout his political life he insisted the real threat to Israel came from Iran. Not from Palestinians or Arab neighbours. He had tried and failed to convince previous American presidents to attack Iran. Trump was different.
Both men underestimated the resilience, ruthlessness, and guile of the Islamic regime. They believed killing the supreme leader and his closest lieutenants would cause a collapse from within. They overestimated the power of military force against a system that had faced threats for nearly fifty years. The regime engineered itself to survive exactly this moment. It thought hard about national security backed by religious and ideological conviction.
The Gulf oil states have suffered hammer blows. It is not just lost revenue from petrochemicals and fertiliser. They built their futures around creating an oasis of stability and multi billion dollar business in the Gulf. Potential investors and tourists now watch the war turn that vision into a mirage.
Iran believes its survival and its chokehold on the world economy can translate into long term deterrence. The new leaders who replaced the old guard are just as ideological but far more willing to take risks. They want to demonstrate that more attacks will bring painful consequences. A key part of their strategy links the war in Lebanon with the war in the Gulf. The message to Trump is simple. No deal is possible while Israel keeps bombing Lebanon and trying to destroy Hezbollah.
Trump showed he accepts this link when he curbed Israel’s plans to attack Beirut. He did so on the grounds that a deal was near. Netanyahu called the linkage intolerable and completely unacceptable. He cancelled that Beirut strike but Israeli forces continue to hit southern Lebanon very hard. Trump will put his own interests and his desire to end the war ahead of Netanyahu’s determination to keep fighting until Tehran is crippled.
The Strait of Hormuz was open until the US and Israel attacked Iran. It remains closed. Without remarkable diplomatic breakthroughs it is difficult to see it reopening anytime soon. The permacrisis grinds on and the two men who started it are running out of answers.
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