US Military launches new strikes on southern Iran and the Ceasefire suddenly feels a lot more fragile than it did on Saturday.
US Central Command confirmed the strikes targeted Iranian missile sites and boats attempting to place mines near Bandar Abbas. That is the southern port city that sits right on the Strait of Hormuz. It also houses a major Iranian naval base. CENTCOM called it self-defense. Capt Tim Hawkins said the military continues to defend its forces while using restraint during the ongoing ceasefire. Bombs and restraint in the same breath.
The strikes land at the worst possible moment for diplomacy. Iranian foreign ministry spokesman Esmail Baqai admitted some progress has been made in talks with the US. Then he added the critical line. A deal is not imminent. Translation: we are talking. We are also still being bombed. Trust is not exactly blooming.
Just days ago, Trump suggested the sides were close to a deal. Then he told negotiators not to rush. Then Rubio hinted an agreement could possibly be reached on Monday. Now explosions are rocking Bandar Abbas and Iranian state media is reporting that local officials are investigating what happened.
The deal on the table is a memorandum of understanding. A 60-day ceasefire extension. Reopening the Strait of Hormuz. A framework for nuclear negotiations. The hardest stuff gets pushed to later. Sanctions relief. Frozen funds. Iran’s nuclear ambitions. No one is solving those right now.
Iran is thought to have about 440 kilograms of uranium enriched to 60 percent purity at the start of the war. That is a short technical step from weapons-grade. Trump said on Monday night that the enriched uranium must be immediately turned over to the US or destroyed in place in coordination with Iran. That is not a small ask.
The situation is made even messier by the fact that Iran’s Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei is reportedly holed up in an undisclosed location, injured in an Israeli strike on the first day of the war that killed his father. US intelligence believes his isolation is making communication with envoys difficult and delaying the pace of talks. The man who needs to sign off on any deal is hiding from the bombs that are still falling.
Despite everything, Iran’s top negotiator and foreign minister were in Doha meeting with Qatar’s prime minister about a potential deal. Pakistani mediators are still shuttling. Diplomacy is not dead. It is just bleeding.
The ceasefire has held since April 8. The Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed. The US Navy continues its blockade of Iranian ports. Oil prices are still elevated. The war that started on February 28 with massive US and Israeli strikes is paused but not over. Every new explosion is a reminder that the pause can end in an instant.
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60-day ceasefire extension is just kicking the can. What happens on day 61 when nothing is solved??
Mines that hadn’t been placed yet?? The justification gets thinner every week
Every time oil prices start to dip, another strike happens. Almost like someone doesn’t want the strait to reopen 🤔
The Supreme Leader hiding in a bunker while his negotiators try to make a deal is the most dystopian detail in this whole mess 😩
“Deal not imminent” after a weekend of “deal is close” — I have whiplash from these peace talks 💀
Bombing them while negotiating with them?? Make it make sense 🤯 This is why Iran doesn’t trust a word the US says
The military continues to use restraint but sir you just launched strikes on their missile sites. That’s not restraint
The gap between what diplomats say and what the military does has never been wider. Someone is lying
Ceasefire since April 8 but both sides keep poking each other. This isn’t peace. This is a timeout between rounds 🥊
Bandar Abbas is a major port city. Hitting there is not some surgical strike in the desert. Civilians live there
The fact they’re still using Pakistani mediators means both sides want this to work. But the bombs don’t help the talking
“Self-defense” against what??
440kg of 60% enriched uranium and Trump wants it “immediately turned over”?? That’s not a negotiation. That’s a demand
Iran’s foreign minister literally in Doha talking peace while US bombs drop on Bandar Abbas. The irony is suffocating
Supreme Leader’s dad killed on day one. Now he’s injured and hiding. That trauma doesn’t exactly produce rational decision-making
Trump saying “deal is close” on Saturday and CENTCOM bombing Bandar Abbas on Monday… this administration is schizophrenic